2024 Calgary Real Estate Forecast

Market Forecast 

Calgary’s housing market is forecasted to continued with strong sales with hopes of more sellers  bringing homes to the market, and Calgary will remain in a sellers market for the remainder of the year. Please note, we have already seen a very sharp increase in sales in January to the tune of +37.7%, compared to January of last year. If this type of volume continues, we could be in for another active year, with strong increases in value across all sectors of the market.

Over 30,000+ people have moved to Alberta every quarter, for the past five consecutive quarters, but are forecasted to see the slowing of migration in 2024. The Bank of Canada has also held the over night rate once again at 5.0%, with an expected rate drop sometime in the first quarter, March 6th will be the next announcement, so stay tuned on that. Lenders have already said that the amount of pre-approval activity is way above last year at this time, with potentially seeing a flood of new buyers getting back into the market.

Q4 saw only 271 homes sell over the million dollar plus range and was the second quarter of continued declines in sale volume in this price range, potentially with a balancing in this sector of the market to come. The highest sale price in Q4 sold for $8,000.000.00, which was located backing the Elbow River in East Elbow Park. 

Market Segments
 

• For Calgary’s detached market, the majority of the supply gains are forecasted to occur in the upper price ranges, slowing the pace of price growth for higher-priced homes . Meanwhile, persistently tight conditions in the lower price ranges are likely to continue driving further price growth in this sector. *The detached benchmark price in Calgary increased 7.64% in 2023.

 

• The semi-detached market is expected to see sales and new listings improve, we do not anticipate the market returning to more balanced conditions until later in 2024, driving further price growth. *The semi-detached benchmark price in Calgary increased 7.40% in 2023. 

 

• A surge in new home starts in row housing in 2023 should help support supply growth for this property type in 2024 . However, the relative affordability will continue to support strong demand, prolonging the time it takes for this market to return to more balanced conditions and supporting further price growth in 2024, but at a slower pace. *The row housing benchmark price in Calgary increased 13.56% in 2023.

 

• The condo market saw a surge in demand last year which supported significant price growth. Prices in 2023 finally recovered and rose above the highs reported in 2014, and this sector is forecasted for continued growth in 2024 due to limited supply. *The condo market’s benchmark price in Calgary increased 13.49% in 2023. 

Looking Forward 

 The first month of the year if off to a roaring start, and this trend is likely to continue throughout  the remainder of the year. Buyers are ready to roll and it appears that sellers could be as well, as we are seeing more listings come to the market in January and this month.  

Calgary’s residential market has continued to remain undersupplied for a number of reason’s. The City of Calgary has in turn created a Housing Strategy to confront this demand in a number of ways. A new rezoning plan has been presented, and if approved, you will see a zoning change in most areas from R-1 + R-2 zoning to a new R-CG, R-G or H-GO zoning. Below is a link to fully clarify how the City of Calgary is planning to address the demand, albeit with some backlash. The City’s next public hearing that is scheduled to go back to Council, which is set for April 22nd 2024. And yes, areas like Upper Mount Royal (only a portion), Elbow Park, Britannia, Bel-Air and other central neighbourhoods with larger lots and higher land values, are also included in this proposed rezoning plan.

 https://www.calgary.ca/communities/housing-in-calgary/housing-strategy.html


Have a great year ahead and I will be in touch shortly with my Q1 update.  

Cheers!