Market Overview
Nationally, Q3 numbers showed a drop in sale volume mostly in both Ontario and BC, but rest assure, that is clearly not the case in Calgary’s real estate market. Sales were up 24.33% and listings up 12.29%, but our market continues to see a tightening of inventory, and surprisingly even less than what we had last year in Q3 by 30.58%. With less supply, we will continue to see the benchmark price rise as supply desperately trying to keep up with the demand for housing in our city.
Economic Factors
The Bank of Canada’s last announcement of the year has once again maintained the overnight rate at 5.0%. Some economists are projecting a drop in rates as early as the first quarter of 2024 but most forecasting the start of Q3. Alberta has continued to see high numbers of net migration to our province in Q3 (International 31,371 + Interprovincial 13,926), we will face low inventory supply until we see a slowing of migration and higher housing starts to being the balancing of inventory.
Luxury Market
Q3 saw 395 homes sell over the million dollar plus range, this market slowed in volume compared to the 503 sales in Q2. The highest sale price for Q3 sold for $4,075,000.00, which was located on the north facing ridge of Britannia with downtown views.
Looking forward
Market Segments
- Calgary’s Detached market has remained strong with an increase of 3.05% in value over Q2 of this year. We did see more listings hit the market but they were snapped up by buyers trying to solidify a home. The inventory saw a slight climb and is currently sitting at 1.43 months of supply, but we are still a long way from a balanced market in this sector. The Detached market has seen a year over year increase in value of 9.51%. Semi-Detached sales also performed well, with a 5.73% gain in value and only 1.05 months of supply.
- Semi-Detached sales have also had a strong Q3, with a 3.08% gain in value with the inventory at only 1.33 months of supply. The Semi-Detached market has seen a year over year increase in value of 9.51%.
- Row housing in Q3 saw the strongest increase in value at 5.79%, along with being the most under supplied market with only 0.88 months of supply. This sector saw a year over year increase in value toppling all by 15.51%.
- Condominium’s came in second in Q3 with an increase in value of 3.56% and the second largest increase in value year over year at 13.51%. The condo market now has only 1.32 months of inventory, making way for a year over year gain in value of 13.51%.
Looking forward
Crazy how time flies as we closeout a very interesting 2023. As we draw near to some much needed time off with friends, family and loved ones, I believe next year will be one of change. With continued low inventory and the anticipated interest rates dropping, I think we will see more homes hitting the market in first quarter of the year with strong sales to continue throughout the remainder of 2024.
I wish you and your loved ones a happy holiday season, and all the best in 2024!
Cheers to you!
Kevin Bamford